Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 78% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $53K traded all time
- Held now
- $22K by 143 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 67% 86 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 78% 57 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $53K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
67% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
143 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 143 of them. The largest Yes holder is Contestable-Parfait, with $4.3K on it, $173K lifetime profit over 345 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is lava-lava, with $851 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 1,655 markets (47% won).
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$20K on it
- 1Contestable-Parfait61% won of 345 · whale$4.3K+$173K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,046$3.2K−$49K lifetime
- 30xc8b9…b83664% won of 552 · whale$1.8K+$371K lifetime
- 4BobbyBakedBeans42% won of 4,648 · whale$1.5K+$25K lifetime
- 50x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$1.3K+$127K lifetime
No$2.0K on it
- 1lava-lava47% won of 1,655 · whale$851+$1.2M lifetime
- 2D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC3893558% won of 935 · whale$305+$85K lifetime
- 3DeezNuggies60% won of 212$281−$2.3K lifetime
- 4NotAnIdiot48% won of 1,435 · balanced$143+$1.5K lifetime
- 5wqeewqeadawfawfwa42% won of 1,925$71−$9.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in TX-15 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?"?
143 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 143 of them. The largest Yes holder is Contestable-Parfait, with $4.3K on it, $173K lifetime profit over 345 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is lava-lava, with $851 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 1,655 markets (47% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $53K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.