Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $22K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.2K by 37 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 63% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 60% 19 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
63% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 21 points.
Who holds it
37 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is hadarhaddad, with $10 on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 946 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is donthackme, with $176 on it, $829K lifetime profit over 87,178 markets (29% won).
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $32
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$32 on it
- 1hadarhaddad49% won of 946 · balanced$10+$2.6K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$6−$485K lifetime
- 3b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,389 · whale$3+$22K lifetime
- 4Oklmntrader13% won of 577$3−$173K lifetime
- 5akunai45% won of 417 · whale$3+$2.3K lifetime
No$1.1K on it
- 1donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$176+$829K lifetime
- 2macrosteaks64% won of 2,637$123−$8.2K lifetime
- 3ABC1234565432148% won of 6,025$102−$1.3K lifetime
- 4Jesque100% won of 38$82+$17 lifetime
- 5graindang85% won of 13$76+$5 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-43 House Election Winner
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat?"?
37 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is hadarhaddad, with $10 on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 946 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is donthackme, with $176 on it, $829K lifetime profit over 87,178 markets (29% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.