Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 76% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $931 by 28 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 76% 16 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 41% 12 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 4¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
76% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 40 points. A week ago, Yes by 55 points.
Who holds it
28 wallets hold a position worth $931 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 28 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $248 on it, $129K lifetime profit over 9,933 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is thecaricature, with $12 on it, $7.9K lifetime loss over 717 markets (44% won).
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $901
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 12
- Money on it
- $30
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$901 on it
- 10x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$248+$129K lifetime
- 2i2dt71% won of 356 · whale$150+$17K lifetime
- 3Ryxon2181% won of 609 · whale$137+$133K lifetime
- 4SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$101+$48K lifetime
- 5ABC1234565432148% won of 6,025$64−$1.3K lifetime
No$30 on it
- 1thecaricature44% won of 717$12−$7.9K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 124,068 · noise$6+$257K lifetime
- 373f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.96% won of 716 · grinder$5+$1.3K lifetime
- 4pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,725$2−$320K lifetime
- 5NotAnIdiot48% won of 1,435 · balanced$2+$1.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-43 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat?"?
28 wallets hold a position worth $931 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 28 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $248 on it, $129K lifetime profit over 9,933 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is thecaricature, with $12 on it, $7.9K lifetime loss over 717 markets (44% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 4¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 40 points. A week ago, Yes by 55 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.