Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 78% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 28 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $658 by 35 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 78% 27 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 51% 8 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
78% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 26 points.
Who holds it
35 wallets hold a position worth $658 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $1 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is GUINESS123, with $320 on it, $59K lifetime loss over 547 markets (70% won).
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $7
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Holders
- 8
- Money on it
- $652
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7 on it
- 1SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$1+$48K lifetime
- 2planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$1+$132K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$1+$335K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$1−$485K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,967 · noise$0+$28K lifetime
No$652 on it
- 1GUINESS12370% won of 547$320−$59K lifetime
- 2vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$251+$170K lifetime
- 3GirlOnFire70% won of 198 · balanced$70+$1.1K lifetime
- 4bbd113d45% won of 8,024 · balanced$5+$348 lifetime
- 5ddd333aaa45% won of 4,329 · balanced$5+$1.2K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-04 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat?"?
35 wallets hold a position worth $658 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $1 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is GUINESS123, with $320 on it, $59K lifetime loss over 547 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.