Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 28 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $39K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.2K by 71 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 89% 24 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 61% 47 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $39K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
89% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.
Who holds it
71 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is byu5, with $4.4K on it, $52 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Haradwaith, with $49 on it, $378K lifetime loss over 54,120 markets (50% won).
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $9.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $183
- Holders' win rate
- 40%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$9.0K on it
- 1byu5no record yet$4.4K+$52 lifetime
- 2Gladius766% won of 249 · balanced$1.9K+$33K lifetime
- 3i2dt71% won of 356 · whale$775+$17K lifetime
- 4GUINESS12370% won of 547$735−$59K lifetime
- 5vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$300+$170K lifetime
No$183 on it
- 1Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$49−$378K lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$34+$28K lifetime
- 34202149% won of 1,053 · whale$27+$19K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$26+$335K lifetime
- 50xF03D13c94373E052a177601419291Ce2FAfE21Fb-176952655872435% won of 254$9−$729 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-04 House Election Winner
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?"?
71 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is byu5, with $4.4K on it, $52 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Haradwaith, with $49 on it, $378K lifetime loss over 54,120 markets (50% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $39K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.