Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 21% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $31K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 65 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 12% 35 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 21% 30 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 19¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
12% of the money on Yes and 21% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
Who holds it
65 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $4.0K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is gateway-, with $1.0K on it, $103 lifetime loss over 236 markets (38% won).
- Holders
- 35
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$11K on it
- 1anoin12359% won of 1,608$4.0K−$4.7M lifetime
- 2Gaditima49% won of 12,111$3.5K−$434K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,325$880−$52K lifetime
- 40x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$586+$129K lifetime
- 5macrosteaks64% won of 2,637$518−$8.2K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1gateway-38% won of 236$1.0K−$103 lifetime
- 2SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$108+$48K lifetime
- 3Bsau458% won of 396 · whale$45+$2.5K lifetime
- 4K80PRO56% won of 908$38−$347 lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$34+$829K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AR-02 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?"?
65 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $4.0K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is gateway-, with $1.0K on it, $103 lifetime loss over 236 markets (38% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 19¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
12% of the money on Yes and 21% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.