Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 82% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 70 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $52K traded all time
- Held now
- $10K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 82% 30 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 12% 28 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $52K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
82% of the money on Yes and 12% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 69 points. A week ago, Yes by 70 points.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is BigRabbit, with $1.8K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $2.7K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 41%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $7.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.8K on it
- 1BigRabbit36% won of 1,102 · noise$1.8K+$127K lifetime
- 2fanmt37% won of 200$305−$11K lifetime
- 3mrworldwide70% won of 1,447 · whale$163+$219K lifetime
- 4iadme57% won of 223 · whale$105+$31K lifetime
- 5SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,620$96−$9.0K lifetime
No$7.2K on it
- 1anoin12359% won of 1,608$2.7K−$4.7M lifetime
- 2macrosteaks64% won of 2,637$1.2K−$8.2K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,316$1.2K−$53K lifetime
- 4Gaditima49% won of 12,111$531−$434K lifetime
- 5resfeber42% won of 1,608$357−$10K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AR-02 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is BigRabbit, with $1.8K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $2.7K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $52K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 12% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 69 points. A week ago, Yes by 70 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.