Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 97% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 17 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $20K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.7K by 46 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 97% 26 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 20 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
97% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
Who holds it
46 wallets hold a position worth $4.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x120b3E2E98fC4fe8C383C70867fD635669F1eE03-1730491999430, with $2.9K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 129 markets (99% won). The largest No holder is SitsToPee, with $45 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won).
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $4.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 87%
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $72
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.7K on it
- 10x120b3E2E98fC4fe8C383C70867fD635669F1eE03-173049199943099% won of 129 · balanced$2.9K+$12K lifetime
- 2Ryxon2181% won of 609 · whale$1.0K+$133K lifetime
- 3nicoco8965% won of 1,030 · whale$317+$121K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$157+$335K lifetime
- 5qhome1233% won of 51$123−$46 lifetime
No$72 on it
- 1SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$45+$48K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$10−$485K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,324 · noise$4+$254K lifetime
- 4Numitus199449% won of 15,786$4−$28K lifetime
- 5BSS3728% won of 337 · noise$2+$7.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AL-04 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?"?
46 wallets hold a position worth $4.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x120b3E2E98fC4fe8C383C70867fD635669F1eE03-1730491999430, with $2.9K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 129 markets (99% won). The largest No holder is SitsToPee, with $45 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
97% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.