Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 49% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 29 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $19K traded all time
- Held now
- $255 by 32 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 49% 27 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 20% 5 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
49% of the money on Yes and 20% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
Who holds it
32 wallets hold a position worth $255 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 32 of them. The largest Yes holder is thecaricature, with $0 on it, $7.9K lifetime loss over 717 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is FrankyFourFingers, with $200 on it, $7.0K lifetime loss over 264 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $1
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 5
- Money on it
- $254
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1 on it
- 1thecaricature44% won of 717$0−$7.9K lifetime
- 2planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$0+$132K lifetime
- 3ivanzolo200434% won of 158$0−$95 lifetime
- 4welcometohell64% won of 200$0−$7.5K lifetime
- 5qhome1233% won of 51$0−$46 lifetime
No$254 on it
- 1FrankyFourFingers69% won of 264$200−$7.0K lifetime
- 2immanuelcan78% won of 1,011 · whale$50+$39K lifetime
- 3JeremiahBethlehem91% won of 22$4−$102 lifetime
- 4Colala61% won of 7,860 · whale$1+$23K lifetime
- 5tetterball257% won of 200 · balanced$0+$906 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AL-04 House Election Winner
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?"?
32 wallets hold a position worth $255 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 32 of them. The largest Yes holder is thecaricature, with $0 on it, $7.9K lifetime loss over 717 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is FrankyFourFingers, with $200 on it, $7.0K lifetime loss over 264 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
49% of the money on Yes and 20% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.