Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the AL-03 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 24% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 7 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $24K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 28 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 18% 15 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 24% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 3¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
18% of the money on Yes and 24% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 70 points.
Who holds it
28 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 28 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xE41adDdfD269f811c8dc173237eD8C4F213d29bD-1786041153188, with $2.7K on it, $137 lifetime loss over 125 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Dr.PNL, with $10 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,294 markets (30% won).
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $21
- Holders' win rate
- 41%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.5K on it
- 10xE41adDdfD269f811c8dc173237eD8C4F213d29bD-178604115318879% won of 125$2.7K−$137 lifetime
- 2cowcat68% won of 1,069 · whale$244+$72K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$198+$129K lifetime
- 4purplegatto73% won of 3,511$135−$1.9M lifetime
- 5HolyMoses753% won of 1,503 · whale$62+$179K lifetime
No$21 on it
- 1Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$10−$485K lifetime
- 2thecaricature44% won of 717$5−$7.9K lifetime
- 3Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,136 · whale$2+$560 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$2+$254K lifetime
- 5Rain-Prob-015% won of 207$1−$312 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AL-03 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the AL-03 House seat?"?
28 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 28 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xE41adDdfD269f811c8dc173237eD8C4F213d29bD-1786041153188, with $2.7K on it, $137 lifetime loss over 125 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Dr.PNL, with $10 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,294 markets (30% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the AL-03 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 3¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
18% of the money on Yes and 24% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 70 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.