Who's betting on “Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?”?
Smart money leans No: 75% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 15 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $60K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.2K by 87 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 60% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 75% 44 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 26¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
The smart money
60% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
Who holds it
87 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 87 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-1770845647674, with $1.4K on it, $297 lifetime profit over 27 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is 0xef34…0ff6, with $257 on it, $2.9K lifetime profit over 25 markets (92% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $366 on Yes.
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $8.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $366
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$8.1K on it
- 10x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-177084564767467% won of 27 · balanced$1.4K+$297 lifetime
- 2bonalddrunk60% won of 378$1.4K−$13K lifetime
- 3Drkuno record yet$1.3K+$0 lifetime
- 40x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-177700480220964% won of 307 · balanced$1.2K+$3.5K lifetime
- 50x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-179244949675485% won of 13$898+$8.7K lifetime
No$1.1K on it
- 10xef34…0ff692% won of 25 · balanced$257+$2.9K lifetime
- 2Started-with-20-USD55% won of 571 · whale$153+$54K lifetime
- 3Hot-SkullHomelessBegger75% won of 71 · balanced$138+$16K lifetime
- 4EsperanzasDESTROYER75% won of 204 · balanced$99+$38K lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$67+$829K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?"?
87 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 87 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-1770845647674, with $1.4K on it, $297 lifetime profit over 27 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is 0xef34…0ff6, with $257 on it, $2.9K lifetime profit over 25 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 75¢ and No at 26¢, a 75% implied chance of Yes. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.