Who's betting on “Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 33 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $62K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.9K by 56 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 94% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 61% 24 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $62K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
The smart money
94% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 79 points. A week ago, Yes by 77 points.
Who holds it
56 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 56 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209, with $1.1K on it, $3.5K lifetime profit over 307 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed, with $235 on it, $163K lifetime profit over 15,906 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $467
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.4K on it
- 10x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-177700480220964% won of 307 · balanced$1.1K+$3.5K lifetime
- 2Hugin-og-Munin42% won of 15,635 · whale$62+$21K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$59+$255K lifetime
- 4donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$54+$829K lifetime
- 5hfv42% won of 44,595$35−$143K lifetime
No$467 on it
- 1Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed56% won of 15,906 · whale$235+$163K lifetime
- 2webot-ai56% won of 36$124−$503 lifetime
- 3leadernew43% won of 7,328$47−$7.1K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$22+$334K lifetime
- 50xaF05465D8f88a8Aad0BD916d23fA781BaA8a33E2-178176949978895% won of 1,703 · balanced$8+$1.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
1 moreOther big weather markets
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- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?"?
56 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 56 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209, with $1.1K on it, $3.5K lifetime profit over 307 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed, with $235 on it, $163K lifetime profit over 15,906 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $62K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 79 points. A week ago, Yes by 77 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.