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Who's betting on “Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?”?

Politics · $50K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $50K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

78% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 38 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.

89 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 89 of them. The largest Yes holder is Adrink3D, with $41 on it, $43K lifetime profit over 58 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is 0xa894…53da, with $385 on it, $9.1K lifetime profit over 132 markets (83% won).

Yes9%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
78% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
Holders
46
Money on it
$173
Holders' winrate
53%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No92%
Smart money share
64% ▲ 20 pts 24 h
Holders
43
Money on it
$1.9K
Holders' winrate
68%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Adrink3Dwhale$41+$43K66% of 58
0xa288476992285Ab1535a19fF5CB5C31d494Bf80f-1766059352725noise$20+$15043% of 93
0x43ca1f1D6ee7Aabae77904Ac6bD49645EefCd04C-1772321874896noise$14+$5124% of 83
AJSVwhale$12+$218K41% of 102,701
Hugin-og-Muninwhale$10+$22K43% of 14,101
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0xa894…53dabalanced$385+$9.1K83% of 132
CDAP1whale$384+$142K77% of 26
0xa82c6D29Bc9AF5c8E9932A07240013F38cB8Dd71-1756138241043$275-$3.4K40% of 110
il1$121-$6.6K68% of 320
CompulsiveGamblerwhale$91+$74K69% of 1,043
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?"?

89 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 89 of them. The largest Yes holder is Adrink3D, with $41 on it, $43K lifetime profit over 58 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is 0xa894…53da, with $385 on it, $9.1K lifetime profit over 132 markets (83% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $50K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

78% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 38 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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