Who's betting on “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?”?
Politics · $227K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $227K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
37% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 54 points. A week ago, No by 55 points.
124 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is Joebama, with $160 on it, $2.1K lifetime loss over 192 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is 0x4e25…d7a7, with $5.4K on it, $252K lifetime profit over 1,000 markets (59% won).
- Smart money share
- 37%
- Holders
- 61
- Money on it
- $310
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 91%
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joebama | $160 | -$2.1K | 56% of 192 |
| RazvanelManbalanced | $95 | +$27K | 68% of 28 |
| whumpa | $14 | -$8.8K | 91% of 225 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.whale | $7 | +$22K | 98% of 3,063 |
| Dr.PNL | $5 | -$476K | 30% of 13,845 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4e25…d7a7whale | $5.4K | +$252K | 59% of 1,000 |
| puravidawhale | $3.7K | +$40K | 64% of 1,293 |
| DEGENKHANwhale | $1.4K | +$105K | 74% of 1,139 |
| Ahpowhale | $1.1K | +$137K | 90% of 1,114 |
| Skalizwhale | $1.0K | +$15K | 85% of 207 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
- ↓ 2.75%$374K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↓ 3.0%$324K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ 4.25%$149K vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money split
- ↑ 5.25%$143K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↓ 0.25%$133K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↓ 0.5%$108K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- ↓ 3.25%$82K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↑ 4.75%$81K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- ↑ 5.5%$57K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↑ 4.5%$50K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- ↓ 2.25%$42K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↓ 1.5%$28K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↓ 2.0%$23K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↓ 0%$21K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↑ 5.0%$20K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- ↓ 1.75%$13K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?"?
124 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is Joebama, with $160 on it, $2.1K lifetime loss over 192 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is 0x4e25…d7a7, with $5.4K on it, $252K lifetime profit over 1,000 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $227K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
37% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 54 points. A week ago, No by 55 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.