Who's betting on “Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 82% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 7 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $14K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.0K by 52 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 82% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 76% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 17, 2026.
The smart money
82% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it was split.
Who holds it
52 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them. The largest Yes holder is Skaliz, with $369 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 208 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is exothetajunkie, with $310 on it, $23K lifetime profit over 204 markets (78% won).
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $650
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.4K on it
- 1Skaliz85% won of 208 · whale$369+$16K lifetime
- 2AiBird57% won of 1,279 · whale$280+$122K lifetime
- 3Jimmyneutrondu3442% won of 59 · noise$182+$1.4K lifetime
- 40x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8fB9-177115719040396% won of 49 · grinder$97+$1.9K lifetime
- 5Dcgunduz43% won of 201 · noise$76+$483 lifetime
No$650 on it
- 1exothetajunkie78% won of 204 · whale$310+$23K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$158+$255K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$53−$377K lifetime
- 4lissartter56% won of 2,997$34−$287K lifetime
- 5tradetosurvive145% won of 25,344$25−$217K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
1 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$954K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?"?
52 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them. The largest Yes holder is Skaliz, with $369 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 208 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is exothetajunkie, with $310 on it, $23K lifetime profit over 204 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 17, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 17, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.