Who's betting on “Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 69% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $21K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.9K by 73 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 69% 48 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 47% 25 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 36¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 17, 2026.
The smart money
69% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
Who holds it
73 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 73 of them. The largest Yes holder is firegold, with $1.4K on it, $16K lifetime profit over 591 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is AiBird, with $329 on it, $122K lifetime profit over 1,279 markets (57% won).
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 25
- Money on it
- $955
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.9K on it
- 1firegold69% won of 591 · whale$1.4K+$16K lifetime
- 2exothetajunkie78% won of 204 · whale$402+$23K lifetime
- 3alpha.chen73% won of 256$346−$12K lifetime
- 4cleanapproach45% won of 201 · noise$245+$977 lifetime
- 5ChrissyTC40% won of 45$213−$175 lifetime
No$955 on it
- 1AiBird57% won of 1,279 · whale$329+$122K lifetime
- 2TheWindKnowsmyName68% won of 490$163−$52K lifetime
- 30xa0f2…184842% won of 2,583$153−$3.5M lifetime
- 4cigarettes46% won of 49,296$128−$52K lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 87,062 · noise$83+$829K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
1 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$954K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?"?
73 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 73 of them. The largest Yes holder is firegold, with $1.4K on it, $16K lifetime profit over 591 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is AiBird, with $329 on it, $122K lifetime profit over 1,279 markets (57% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 36¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 17, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 17, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.