Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 67% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $18K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.2K by 46 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 41% 33 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 67% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
41% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 14 points.
Who holds it
46 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is purplegatto, with $327 on it, $1.9M lifetime loss over 3,511 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is flow-trader-at-optiver, with $4 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 223 markets (85% won).
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $14
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.2K on it
- 1purplegatto73% won of 3,511$327−$1.9M lifetime
- 2nicoco8965% won of 1,030 · whale$195+$121K lifetime
- 30xE41adDdfD269f811c8dc173237eD8C4F213d29bD-178604115318879% won of 125$140−$137 lifetime
- 40x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$118+$129K lifetime
- 5byu5no record yet$92+$52 lifetime
No$14 on it
- 1flow-trader-at-optiver85% won of 223 · whale$4+$27K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$4+$254K lifetime
- 3Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$3−$485K lifetime
- 4Rain-Prob-015% won of 207$1−$312 lifetime
- 5GuyFromTinder37% won of 22,344$1−$89K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in IL-02 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?"?
46 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is purplegatto, with $327 on it, $1.9M lifetime loss over 3,511 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is flow-trader-at-optiver, with $4 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 223 markets (85% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
41% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.