Who's betting on “Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?”?
Politics · $123K volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $123K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
73% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
202 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 202 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pump, with $331 on it, $50K lifetime profit over 232 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is aviato, with $679 on it, $202K lifetime profit over 1,237 markets (81% won).
- Smart money share
- 73%
- Holders
- 121
- Money on it
- $955
- Holders' winrate
- 43%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 92%
- Holders
- 81
- Money on it
- $2.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 77%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pumpnoise | $331 | +$50K | 29% of 232 |
| 0xe5b4…a85anoise | $101 | +$1.3K | 21% of 33 |
| 0x3a9d…f332 | $39 | -$810 | 84% of 89 |
| 0x0f01165c05C2Ee3941D80B42C77a46C75D735659-1771529134970 | $28 | -$16 | 78% of 9 |
| AJSVwhale | $25 | +$218K | 41% of 102,878 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| aviatowhale | $679 | +$202K | 81% of 1,237 |
| ImJustKenwhale | $398 | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| flow-trader-at-optiverwhale | $265 | +$27K | 85% of 221 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $152 | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| paddaawhale | $124 | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?"?
202 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 202 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pump, with $331 on it, $50K lifetime profit over 232 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is aviato, with $679 on it, $202K lifetime profit over 1,237 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $123K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.