Who's betting on “Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?”?
Politics · $63K volume · Ends December 31, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $63K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
58% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 33 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
172 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 172 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xe5b4…a85a, with $38 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 33 markets (21% won). The largest No holder is ImJustKen, with $280 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won).
- Smart money share
- 58%
- Holders
- 119
- Money on it
- $386
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 91%
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $928
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe5b4…a85anoise | $38 | +$1.3K | 21% of 33 |
| Pumpnoise | $34 | +$50K | 29% of 232 |
| paddaawhale | $27 | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
| cervlord | $26 | -$201 | 46% of 24 |
| 0x3a9d…f332 | $18 | -$810 | 84% of 89 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenwhale | $280 | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| yingtaoh | $72 | +$1.1K | 25% of 8 |
| libaneg | $63 | +$132 | 45% of 11 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $59 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| hyperboreanchromosomebalanced | $54 | +$240 | 99% of 133 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?"?
172 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 172 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xe5b4…a85a, with $38 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 33 markets (21% won). The largest No holder is ImJustKen, with $280 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $63K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 33 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.