Who's betting on “Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?”?
Politics · $30K volume · Ends December 31, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
73% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
139 wallets hold a position worth $755 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 139 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $68 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is bobbybrownjun, with $46 on it, $711 lifetime loss over 23 markets (78% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 73%
- Holders
- 115
- Money on it
- $519
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 46%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $236
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenwhale | $68 | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| risk-managerwhale | $33 | +$196K | 59% of 1,007 |
| paddaawhale | $32 | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
| 0x3a9d…f332 | $30 | -$810 | 84% of 89 |
| flow-trader-at-optiverwhale | $27 | +$27K | 85% of 221 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| bobbybrownjun | $46 | -$711 | 78% of 23 |
| Nasibobenz | $45 | -$512 | 71% of 21 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $43 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| PPMTwhale | $28 | +$16K | 72% of 44,607 |
| predictfish537 | $19 | -$1.2K | 6% of 203 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?"?
139 wallets hold a position worth $755 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 139 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $68 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is bobbybrownjun, with $46 on it, $711 lifetime loss over 23 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.