Who's betting on “Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $67K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.9K by 97 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 79% 57 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 74% 40 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $67K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
The smart money
79% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
97 wallets hold a position worth $7.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 97 of them. The largest Yes holder is michi1, with $921 on it, $38K lifetime profit over 274 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 101456, with $976 on it, $22K lifetime profit over 297 markets (62% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $78 on Yes.
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 1 · $78
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.5K on it
No$4.4K on it
- 110145662% won of 297 · balanced$976+$22K lifetime
- 20x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$882−$8.4K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$849+$334K lifetime
- 4donthackme29% won of 87,012 · noise$614+$829K lifetime
- 50x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-179244949675485% won of 13$445+$8.7K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?"?
97 wallets hold a position worth $7.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 97 of them. The largest Yes holder is michi1, with $921 on it, $38K lifetime profit over 274 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 101456, with $976 on it, $22K lifetime profit over 297 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $67K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.