Who's betting on “Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 6 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $53K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.2K by 68 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 86% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 81% 31 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 57¢ and No at 43¢, a 57% implied chance of Yes. $53K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
The smart money
86% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
68 wallets hold a position worth $8.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is michi1, with $5.2K on it, $38K lifetime profit over 274 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $316 on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won).
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $7.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $731
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7.5K on it
- 1michi153% won of 274 · whale$5.2K+$38K lifetime
- 2Bertrame686834% won of 431$363−$1.9K lifetime
- 3dsfd3100% won of 70$357−$113 lifetime
- 4kupoz63% won of 122 · whale$271+$18K lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$119+$829K lifetime
No$731 on it
- 1SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$316+$203K lifetime
- 2Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed56% won of 15,906 · whale$242+$163K lifetime
- 3pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$63−$320K lifetime
- 4cigarettes46% won of 49,151$32−$48K lifetime
- 5GuyFromTinder37% won of 22,344$21−$89K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
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- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?"?
68 wallets hold a position worth $8.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is michi1, with $5.2K on it, $38K lifetime profit over 274 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $316 on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 57¢ and No at 43¢, a 57% implied chance of Yes. $53K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.