Who's betting on “Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.2K by 75 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 92% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 88% 38 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 64¢ and No at 37¢, a 64% implied chance of Yes. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
92% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 31 points. A week ago, Yes by 51 points.
Who holds it
75 wallets hold a position worth $7.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hauchn, with $4.0K on it, $230K lifetime profit over 224 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is Nadmi, with $370 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (35% won).
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $6.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $673
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.6K on it
- 1Hauchn43% won of 224 · noise$4.0K+$230K lifetime
- 2Dimpled-Foal85% won of 275 · whale$643+$65K lifetime
- 3e46m347% won of 87,774 · whale$466+$964K lifetime
- 4ZhouCD49% won of 2,459$315−$18K lifetime
- 50x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,267 · whale$253+$64K lifetime
No$673 on it
- 1Nadmi35% won of 1,251 · noise$370+$154K lifetime
- 2donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$58+$829K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$49+$255K lifetime
- 4robertoo86% won of 146 · balanced$44+$598 lifetime
- 5lissartter56% won of 2,997$28−$287K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
4 more- Alphabet$32K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: No
- Apple$19K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- NVIDIA$14K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- SpaceX$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
75 wallets hold a position worth $7.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hauchn, with $4.0K on it, $230K lifetime profit over 224 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is Nadmi, with $370 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (35% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 64¢ and No at 37¢, a 64% implied chance of Yes. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
92% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 31 points. A week ago, Yes by 51 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.