Who's betting on “Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $19K traded all time
- Held now
- $388 by 48 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 40 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 88% 8 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
48 wallets hold a position worth $388 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 48 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hauchn, with $76 on it, $230K lifetime profit over 224 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is nnss, with $57 on it, $76 lifetime profit over 81 markets (88% won).
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $300
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 8
- Money on it
- $88
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$300 on it
- 1Hauchn43% won of 224 · noise$76+$230K lifetime
- 2deltasniper57% won of 268$34−$48K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$30−$377K lifetime
- 4seehi51% won of 212$17−$6.4K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,896 · noise$15+$28K lifetime
No$88 on it
- 1nnss88% won of 81$57+$76 lifetime
- 20xfa017f4Ce8CC89D517C3b5Caf0557C36B449800a-178253567129393% won of 771 · grinder$19+$166 lifetime
- 3suntori47% won of 72,096$11−$12M lifetime
- 40xeB68675C06E0bB9F08ba510550912d77289Ce362-17788118920368% won of 32,912 · noise$0+$31K lifetime
- 50xca75…0a6421% won of 10,822$0−$42K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
4 more- Alphabet$32K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- Microsoft$27K vol.Yes 61%No 39%Smart money split
- NVIDIA$14K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- SpaceX$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
48 wallets hold a position worth $388 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 48 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hauchn, with $76 on it, $230K lifetime profit over 224 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is nnss, with $57 on it, $76 lifetime profit over 81 markets (88% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.