Who's betting on “Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 51 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $32K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.4K by 127 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 35% 71 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 86% 56 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
35% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 51 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 52 points. A week ago, No by 47 points.
Who holds it
127 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 127 of them. The largest Yes holder is suntori, with $1.3K on it, $12M lifetime loss over 71,799 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is Hauchn, with $684 on it, $230K lifetime profit over 224 markets (43% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $9 on Yes.
- Holders
- 71
- Money on it
- $3.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 1 · $9
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.1K on it
- 1suntori47% won of 71,799$1.3K−$12M lifetime
- 2e46m347% won of 87,774 · whale$214+$964K lifetime
- 30x6284B48eB4658C7F6765F260cA6804374E67Ac6c-177814734043778% won of 125 · balanced$141+$75 lifetime
- 4JulianHowson60% won of 159 · balanced$124+$1.0K lifetime
- 5Tonymountaina52% won of 253$119−$5.9K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1Hauchn43% won of 224 · noise$684+$230K lifetime
- 238741100741561181409221789738777% won of 1,806 · whale$211+$102K lifetime
- 3acuellarF74% won of 238$107−$783 lifetime
- 4GenaTheBondKilIer46% won of 468 · whale$57+$41K lifetime
- 5Dimpled-Foal85% won of 275 · whale$28+$65K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
4 more- Microsoft$27K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: Yes
- Apple$19K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- NVIDIA$14K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- SpaceX$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
127 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 127 of them. The largest Yes holder is suntori, with $1.3K on it, $12M lifetime loss over 71,799 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is Hauchn, with $684 on it, $230K lifetime profit over 224 markets (43% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
35% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 51 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 52 points. A week ago, No by 47 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.