Who's betting on “Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 34 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $18K traded all time
- Held now
- $698 by 49 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 60% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 17 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
60% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
Who holds it
49 wallets hold a position worth $698 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is moneymakingmachine, with $70 on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,109 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is oliman2, with $280 on it, $106K lifetime profit over 1,228 markets (64% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $12 on Yes.
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $200
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $12
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $497
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$200 on it
- 1moneymakingmachine58% won of 1,109$70−$12K lifetime
- 2kittycat6771% won of 303 · balanced$32+$1.5K lifetime
- 3PCMTest77% won of 504 · whale$21+$13K lifetime
- 4LinaBell69% won of 1,060 · whale$20+$138K lifetime
- 5singularityman76% won of 360 · sniper$12+$78K lifetime
No$497 on it
- 1oliman264% won of 1,228 · whale$280+$106K lifetime
- 2oneoftheppl58% won of 855 · whale$142+$13K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,617$19−$52K lifetime
- 4Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,136 · whale$13+$560 lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,970 · noise$10+$28K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?"?
49 wallets hold a position worth $698 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is moneymakingmachine, with $70 on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,109 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is oliman2, with $280 on it, $106K lifetime profit over 1,228 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.