Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $278K traded all time
- Held now
- $65K by 384 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 84% 244 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 59% 131 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $278K has been traded on it.
The smart money
84% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 25 points.
Who holds it
384 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 375 of them.
- Holders
- 253
- Money on it
- $66
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Holders
- 131
- Money on it
- $65K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
10 more- Lula da Silva 5-10%$288K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%$229K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Renan Santos Victory$223K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%$218K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Lula da Silva 10-15%$109K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+$109K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 15%+$58K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Other$12K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Tarcisio de Freitas Victory$11K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Ratinho Júnior Victory$10K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?"?
384 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 375 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?"?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $278K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 25 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $278K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.