Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $109K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.1K by 176 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 85% 129 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 47 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $109K has been traded on it.
The smart money
85% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
176 wallets hold a position worth $5.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 176 of them.
- Holders
- 129
- Money on it
- $36
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $5.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
10 more- Lula da Silva 5-10%$288K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Lula da Silva <5%$278K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%$229K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Renan Santos Victory$223K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%$218K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+$109K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 15%+$58K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Other$12K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Tarcisio de Freitas Victory$11K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Ratinho Júnior Victory$10K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?"?
176 wallets hold a position worth $5.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 176 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?"?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $109K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $109K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.