Who's betting on “Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 33% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 6 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $22K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.8K by 199 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 33% 63 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 27% 136 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 24, 2025.
The smart money
33% of the money on Yes and 27% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
Who holds it
199 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is MasonsConqueredRome, with $62 on it, $86K lifetime loss over 209 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is hksjhl0419, with $245 on it, $99 lifetime profit over 276 markets (100% won).
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $190
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 136
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 99%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$190 on it
- 1MasonsConqueredRome86% won of 209$62−$86K lifetime
- 2GamblingCow83% won of 203 · whale$27+$1.0K lifetime
- 3PoliGold40% won of 200$12−$773 lifetime
- 4Yelowyolo46% won of 200 · noise$12+$5.3K lifetime
- 5tailevent11% won of 201$9−$507 lifetime
No$1.6K on it
- 1hksjhl0419100% won of 276 · grinder$245+$99 lifetime
- 20x0d5Ed30C586BB273fc8090610C9fb61C802F0234-1766469127506100% won of 270$124−$407 lifetime
- 3sdoezn100% won of 200$102−$275 lifetime
- 40xb229…bc44100% won of 200$96−$80 lifetime
- 50x3844…11b4100% won of 551$71−$185 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
11 more- Umaro Sissoco Embaló$94K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Fernando Dias da Costa$60K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- Siga Batista$27K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Mamadu Iaia Djaló$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Gabriel Fernando Indi$19K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Honório Augusto Lopes$19K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Mário da Silva Júnior$19K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- João de Deus Mendes$18K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- João Bernardo Vieira$17K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Herculano Armando Bequinsa$17K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Baciro Djá$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?"?
199 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is MasonsConqueredRome, with $62 on it, $86K lifetime loss over 209 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is hksjhl0419, with $245 on it, $99 lifetime profit over 276 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 24, 2025.
Which side is the smart money on?
33% of the money on Yes and 27% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 24, 2025. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.