Who's betting on “Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 30% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 10 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $60K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.3K by 403 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 30% 326 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 20% 77 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 24, 2025.
The smart money
30% of the money on Yes and 20% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, Yes by 5 points.
Who holds it
403 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 403 of them. The largest Yes holder is MasonsConqueredRome, with $204 on it, $86K lifetime loss over 209 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is NERA, with $2.0K on it, $48K lifetime loss over 210 markets (48% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $51 on Yes.
- Holders
- 326
- Money on it
- $877
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 1 · $51
- Holders
- 77
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$877 on it
- 1MasonsConqueredRome86% won of 209$204−$86K lifetime
- 2FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$51+$244K lifetime
- 30xd82c…87a6100% won of 1$43+$16 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$41+$254K lifetime
- 5maxhmz527076% won of 202$29−$21K lifetime
No$3.5K on it
- 1NERA48% won of 210$2.0K−$48K lifetime
- 2nicoco8965% won of 1,030 · whale$559+$121K lifetime
- 3p3eFbv0H3b61% won of 205$145−$1.5K lifetime
- 4HedgerMaster2494% won of 34$116−$1.8K lifetime
- 5SheldonLuis59% won of 402$100−$2.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
11 more- Umaro Sissoco Embaló$94K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Siga Batista$27K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- José Mário Vaz$22K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Mamadu Iaia Djaló$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Gabriel Fernando Indi$19K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Honório Augusto Lopes$19K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Mário da Silva Júnior$19K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- João de Deus Mendes$18K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- João Bernardo Vieira$17K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Herculano Armando Bequinsa$17K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Baciro Djá$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?"?
403 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 403 of them. The largest Yes holder is MasonsConqueredRome, with $204 on it, $86K lifetime loss over 209 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is NERA, with $2.0K on it, $48K lifetime loss over 210 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 24, 2025.
Which side is the smart money on?
30% of the money on Yes and 20% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, Yes by 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 24, 2025. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.