Who's betting on “Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?”?
Politics · $235K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $235K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
81% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
169 wallets hold a position worth $98K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 168 of them. The largest Yes holder is cookedquail, with $4.3K on it, $26K lifetime profit over 88 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $40K on it, $306K lifetime profit over 3,734 markets (44% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.3K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 81%
- Holders
- 101
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4.3K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 68
- Money on it
- $84K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| cookedquailsniper | $4.3K | +$26K | 88% of 88 |
| 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6dwhale | $2.2K | +$33K | 64% of 295 |
| MKIsabellanoise | $1.7K | +$8.8K | 45% of 200 |
| coolquailbalanced | $1.3K | +$4.9K | 64% of 98 |
| GypSea1noise | $1.1K | +$4.9K | 50% of 22 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $40K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| perfectnostalgiawhale | $11K | +$152K | 52% of 929 |
| kirby26 | $8.8K | -$6.8K | 57% of 1,247 |
| podairpodwhale | $5.2K | +$29K | 60% of 799 |
| 17735977noise | $4.2K | +$5.0K | 46% of 223 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?"?
169 wallets hold a position worth $98K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 168 of them. The largest Yes holder is cookedquail, with $4.3K on it, $26K lifetime profit over 88 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $40K on it, $306K lifetime profit over 3,734 markets (44% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $235K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.