Who's betting on “Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?”?
Smart money leans No: 66% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $24K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.3K by 92 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 26% 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 66% 46 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 48¢ and No at 53¢, a 53% implied chance of No. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2026.
The smart money
26% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
92 wallets hold a position worth $8.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is xnetic, with $3.0K on it, $292 lifetime loss over 58 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $491 on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 2,609 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $5.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.5K on it
- 1xnetic66% won of 58$3.0K−$292 lifetime
- 2SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$726+$203K lifetime
- 3JackMoneyEth85% won of 201$611−$11K lifetime
- 4Red781RuM57% won of 1,026 · whale$216+$37K lifetime
- 5TouchDownThana46% won of 225 · noise$144+$16K lifetime
No$2.8K on it
- 1macrosteaks64% won of 2,609$491−$7.8K lifetime
- 2buoys46% won of 1,244 · whale$482+$83K lifetime
- 3Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed56% won of 15,906 · whale$309+$163K lifetime
- 474-7541% won of 94$307−$2.5K lifetime
- 5wallet-account-test68% won of 214 · balanced$305+$4.2K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?"?
92 wallets hold a position worth $8.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is xnetic, with $3.0K on it, $292 lifetime loss over 58 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $491 on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 2,609 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 48¢ and No at 53¢, a 53% implied chance of No. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
26% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.