Who's betting on “Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?”?
Smart money leans No: 82% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 52 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.6K by 51 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 30% 29 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 82% 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 74¢ and No at 26¢, a 74% implied chance of Yes. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 29, 2026.
The smart money
30% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 55 points. A week ago, No by 62 points.
Who holds it
51 wallets hold a position worth $4.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 51 of them. The largest Yes holder is NVIDIAAA, with $1.7K on it, $2.9K lifetime loss over 2 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $296 on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $652
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.9K on it
- 1NVIDIAAA50% won of 2$1.7K−$2.9K lifetime
- 20x9E967a1ef7671567476BA4ff2635D67dA403e35A-1776145750732no record yet$363+$0 lifetime
- 30xBAE7A1b846F2C2e18047fCB760Be0B792a821a5a-1768330554557100% won of 2$343+$25 lifetime
- 4SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$300+$203K lifetime
- 50xD0aDe10Dbfd80CfD48c0E876b640796ae67bb23E-177129475957542% won of 206$231−$3.0K lifetime
No$652 on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$296+$313K lifetime
- 2donthackme29% won of 87,062 · noise$136+$829K lifetime
- 3macrosteaks64% won of 2,614$52−$8.2K lifetime
- 4RepublicOfChina82% won of 207 · balanced$39+$4.7K lifetime
- 50x8D652129B15A8C8e014b4aC2EfBB67C9C72cd6d3-177373285943880% won of 10$30−$115 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?"?
51 wallets hold a position worth $4.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 51 of them. The largest Yes holder is NVIDIAAA, with $1.7K on it, $2.9K lifetime loss over 2 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $296 on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 74¢ and No at 26¢, a 74% implied chance of Yes. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 29, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
30% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 55 points. A week ago, No by 62 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 29, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.