Who's betting on “Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 78% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $37K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.4K by 71 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 44 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 78% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $37K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
Who holds it
71 wallets hold a position worth $1.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is MrZobrak, with $121 on it, $297 lifetime loss over 69 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is SiliconBets, with $210 on it, $3.1K lifetime profit over 252 markets (67% won).
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $709
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $718
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$709 on it
- 1MrZobrak52% won of 69$121−$297 lifetime
- 2puravida64% won of 1,346 · whale$91+$37K lifetime
- 3marcusaudacious37% won of 67 · noise$54+$41 lifetime
- 40x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-175947098161649% won of 713 · whale$45+$119K lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 87,062 · noise$41+$829K lifetime
No$718 on it
- 1SiliconBets67% won of 252 · balanced$210+$3.1K lifetime
- 2ndb161% won of 1,418 · whale$134+$2.8M lifetime
- 3theHerbalist46% won of 131 · noise$93+$1.6K lifetime
- 4cigarettes46% won of 49,296$56−$52K lifetime
- 5CircuitBoardA67% won of 258 · balanced$49+$3.4K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?"?
71 wallets hold a position worth $1.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is MrZobrak, with $121 on it, $297 lifetime loss over 69 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is SiliconBets, with $210 on it, $3.1K lifetime profit over 252 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $37K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.