Who's betting on “Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 7 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $45K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 136 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 72 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 81% 64 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 8¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
136 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 136 of them. The largest Yes holder is gopfan2, with $4.8K on it, $1.7M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616, with $66 on it, $120K lifetime profit over 724 markets (49% won).
- Holders
- 72
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $197
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$11K on it
- 1gopfan279% won of 1,014 · whale$4.8K+$1.7M lifetime
- 2Igonlayher41% won of 83$903−$1.7K lifetime
- 3zthunderfury69% won of 558 · whale$740+$22K lifetime
- 4coshi54% won of 107 · balanced$503+$4.7K lifetime
- 5FlyingPlaty100% won of 1,115$392−$266K lifetime
No$197 on it
- 10x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-175947098161649% won of 724 · whale$66+$120K lifetime
- 2BroK33% won of 30 · noise$35+$60 lifetime
- 3donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$10+$829K lifetime
- 4ev34543% won of 202 · noise$9+$60 lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$7+$254K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?"?
136 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 136 of them. The largest Yes holder is gopfan2, with $4.8K on it, $1.7M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616, with $66 on it, $120K lifetime profit over 724 markets (49% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 8¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.