Who's betting on “US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $140K traded all time
- Held now
- $16K by 140 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 77 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 63 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $140K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
Who holds it
140 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 140 of them. The largest Yes holder is ppxtu, with $182 on it, $47K lifetime profit over 86 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $8.3K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won).
- Holders
- 77
- Money on it
- $689
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$689 on it
- 1ppxtu77% won of 86 · whale$182+$47K lifetime
- 2Friday29% won of 302 · noise$86+$42K lifetime
- 36idontknow12345133463% won of 131 · balanced$77+$16K lifetime
- 4GodRama85% won of 260 · whale$68+$16K lifetime
- 5GollumGekko73% won of 1,183 · whale$43+$290K lifetime
No$15K on it
- 1SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$8.3K+$203K lifetime
- 2adenakoz130% won of 233 · noise$1.4K+$11K lifetime
- 3V1nch0u97% won of 1,572$1.1K−$6.1K lifetime
- 4ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$957+$313K lifetime
- 5willsom72% won of 237 · whale$644+$47K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
2 more- December 31$44K vol.Yes 65%No 36%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$74K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?"?
140 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 140 of them. The largest Yes holder is ppxtu, with $182 on it, $47K lifetime profit over 86 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $8.3K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $140K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.