Who's betting on “Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $937 by 59 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 64% 41 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 42% 18 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 8, 2027.
The smart money
64% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
59 wallets hold a position worth $937 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is WeatherHK2, with $19 on it, $28K lifetime profit over 531 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed, with $344 on it, $163K lifetime profit over 15,956 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $94
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $843
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$94 on it
- 1WeatherHK249% won of 531 · whale$19+$28K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$12+$255K lifetime
- 3Skywill51% won of 526$10−$1.5K lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,286 · whale$8+$64K lifetime
- 5youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$7−$6.5K lifetime
No$843 on it
- 1Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed56% won of 15,956 · whale$344+$163K lifetime
- 2tradetosurvive145% won of 25,344$231−$217K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,296$136−$52K lifetime
- 4pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$67−$320K lifetime
- 5AMAM1355% won of 6,743$20−$120K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?
1 moreOther big weather markets
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?"?
59 wallets hold a position worth $937 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is WeatherHK2, with $19 on it, $28K lifetime profit over 531 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed, with $344 on it, $163K lifetime profit over 15,956 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 8, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 8, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.