Who's betting on “Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 6 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $47K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.4K by 74 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 93% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 37 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $47K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 2, 2026.
The smart money
93% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
Who holds it
74 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 73 of them. The largest Yes holder is dpnd, with $65 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 240 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is Sylvester.the.Cat, with $3.3K on it, $25K lifetime profit over 145 markets (63% won).
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $119
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $5.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$119 on it
- 1dpnd39% won of 240 · noise$65+$29K lifetime
- 20x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,315 · whale$34+$64K lifetime
- 3spaceloaf78% won of 315 · balanced$4+$1.0K lifetime
- 4wert460% won of 696 · balanced$3+$615 lifetime
- 5haouibao98% won of 90$2−$196 lifetime
No$5.3K on it
- 1Sylvester.the.Cat63% won of 145 · whale$3.3K+$25K lifetime
- 2tradetosurvive145% won of 25,346$444−$217K lifetime
- 30x372a…f22a44% won of 18$418+$83 lifetime
- 4donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$320+$829K lifetime
- 5iHaveBeenPwned80% won of 5$198+$2.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
2 more- Does not return by November 1, 2026$54K vol.Yes 96%No 4%Smart money split
- September 15 - 30, 2026$37K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?"?
74 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 73 of them. The largest Yes holder is dpnd, with $65 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 240 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is Sylvester.the.Cat, with $3.3K on it, $25K lifetime profit over 145 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $47K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 2, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 2, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.