Who's betting on “Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?”?
Smart money leans No: 97% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 80 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $96K traded all time
- Held now
- $35K by 181 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 17% 69 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 112 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $96K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
The smart money
17% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 80 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 87 points. A week ago, No by 90 points.
Who holds it
181 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 181 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $10 on it, $87K lifetime loss over 9 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is polmarke195, with $15K on it, $5.7K lifetime profit over 28 markets (93% won).
- Holders
- 69
- Money on it
- $39
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 112
- Money on it
- $35K
- Holders' win rate
- 90%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$39 on it
- 1lastminwin56% won of 9$10−$87K lifetime
- 2Cashmeowio100% won of 7$6−$9.6K lifetime
- 3bigdickprick44% won of 32$6−$41K lifetime
- 4omarlrodriguez43% won of 7$4−$499 lifetime
- 5philou747100% won of 7$4−$861 lifetime
No$35K on it
- 1polmarke19593% won of 28 · balanced$15K+$5.7K lifetime
- 2chriszyy395% won of 301 · whale$11K+$52K lifetime
- 3QMG-CORE73% won of 1,224 · whale$5.8K+$57K lifetime
- 4charlatta85% won of 337$564−$10K lifetime
- 5Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$167+$570 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Bank of Japan Decision in October?
4 more- No change$108K vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money split
- 25 bps increase$103K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 25 bps decrease$41K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 50+ bps decrease$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$954K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?
181 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 181 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $10 on it, $87K lifetime loss over 9 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is polmarke195, with $15K on it, $5.7K lifetime profit over 28 markets (93% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $96K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
17% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 80 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 87 points. A week ago, No by 90 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.