Who's betting on “Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 54% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 15 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $156K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 180 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 40% 86 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 54% 94 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $156K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
40% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
Who holds it
180 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 180 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x02aF69A5C73eA09D030F00A79D07739f5335E93d-1775173086414, with $127 on it, $216 lifetime loss over 1 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is cezarn132, with $4.1K on it, $16K lifetime loss over 200 markets (88% won).
Sharp money
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $408 on No.
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $485
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Holders
- 94
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 83%
- Snipers
- 3 · $408
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$485 on it
- 10x02aF69A5C73eA09D030F00A79D07739f5335E93d-1775173086414100% won of 1$127−$216 lifetime
- 2ScottyNooo48% won of 1,596 · whale$37+$904K lifetime
- 3avel-mink6% won of 54 · noise$34+$4.2K lifetime
- 4llama123450% won of 12$28−$618 lifetime
- 50x00E4BeEB4754d843C760092501114b3811F87f67-17717825180940% won of 4$26−$948 lifetime
No$12K on it
- 1cezarn13288% won of 200$4.1K−$16K lifetime
- 2zatic100% won of 5$1.6K+$552 lifetime
- 3Art088881% won of 211 · balanced$1.3K+$3.4K lifetime
- 4tradervader67% won of 169 · balanced$1.1K+$6.0K lifetime
- 5jilm71% won of 203$525−$8.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?"?
180 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 180 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x02aF69A5C73eA09D030F00A79D07739f5335E93d-1775173086414, with $127 on it, $216 lifetime loss over 1 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is cezarn132, with $4.1K on it, $16K lifetime loss over 200 markets (88% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $156K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
40% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.