Who's betting on “Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 41 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $60K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.3K by 121 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 53% 89 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 32 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
53% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 41 points.
Who holds it
121 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 121 of them. The largest Yes holder is PaddyAlpha, with $172 on it, $56K lifetime profit over 402 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Aragorn-II, with $1.6K on it, $27K lifetime profit over 213 markets (82% won).
- Holders
- 89
- Money on it
- $630
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $5.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 85%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$630 on it
- 1PaddyAlpha69% won of 402 · whale$172+$56K lifetime
- 2Forch67% won of 295$84−$474 lifetime
- 3Friday29% won of 302 · noise$51+$42K lifetime
- 4FrankyFourFingers69% won of 264$43−$7.0K lifetime
- 5IlIlllIIIIllllIlIlllllIlIIIllllI38% won of 216$38−$7.6K lifetime
No$5.7K on it
- 1Aragorn-II82% won of 213 · whale$1.6K+$27K lifetime
- 2Odin.Valhal94% won of 78 · balanced$1.5K+$1.7K lifetime
- 3BamseOgKylling84% won of 189 · balanced$993+$7.8K lifetime
- 4HULK99% won of 202 · balanced$360+$9.4K lifetime
- 5simpleman53% won of 1,036 · whale$180+$91K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?"?
121 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 121 of them. The largest Yes holder is PaddyAlpha, with $172 on it, $56K lifetime profit over 402 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Aragorn-II, with $1.6K on it, $27K lifetime profit over 213 markets (82% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 41 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.