Who's betting on “Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $100K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 87 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 39 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 78% 48 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 36¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $100K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2030.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
Who holds it
87 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 87 of them. The largest Yes holder is mombil, with $3.2K on it, $502K lifetime profit over 1,063 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is flawfence, with $1.2K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 499 markets (75% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $113 on Yes.
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $7.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 1 · $113
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $3.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7.5K on it
- 1mombil62% won of 1,063 · whale$3.2K+$502K lifetime
- 218in36out95% won of 43 · balanced$1.1K+$6.8K lifetime
- 3justme00376% won of 394$847−$26K lifetime
- 4Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$829+$154K lifetime
- 5StarMaster54% won of 944 · whale$645+$98K lifetime
No$3.7K on it
- 1flawfence75% won of 499 · whale$1.2K+$1.1M lifetime
- 2Umaroth69% won of 612 · whale$426+$8.2K lifetime
- 3maximus2620% won of 5$412−$844 lifetime
- 4smellyEllie50% won of 1,984 · whale$259+$106K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$190−$378K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?"?
87 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 87 of them. The largest Yes holder is mombil, with $3.2K on it, $502K lifetime profit over 1,063 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is flawfence, with $1.2K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 499 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 36¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $100K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2030.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2030. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.