Who's betting on “Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $35K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.1K by 40 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 95% 16 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 24 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
95% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
Who holds it
40 wallets hold a position worth $5.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 40 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $807 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 52,451 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is prodset, with $2.3K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 445 markets (52% won).
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.8K on it
- 1balthazar53% won of 52,451 · whale$807+$1.2M lifetime
- 2e46m347% won of 87,778 · whale$637+$964K lifetime
- 30x7272c0D9478Ef6447f48A20a7Db2839A61A4a67d-173522719331873% won of 112 · balanced$247+$20K lifetime
- 4lissartter56% won of 2,997$42−$287K lifetime
- 5pinner38% won of 1,098$27−$9.6K lifetime
No$3.3K on it
- 1prodset52% won of 445 · balanced$2.3K+$1.2K lifetime
- 2Antony8267% won of 712 · balanced$325+$3.7K lifetime
- 3Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$243+$1.5M lifetime
- 4ScottyNooo48% won of 1,596 · whale$180+$904K lifetime
- 5youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$65−$6.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
40 wallets hold a position worth $5.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 40 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $807 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 52,451 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is prodset, with $2.3K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 445 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
95% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.