Who's betting on “Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?”?
Smart money leans No: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 8 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.0K by 36 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 83% 15 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 91% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
The smart money
83% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
Who holds it
36 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $820 on it, $325K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is theta-thunberg, with $33 on it, $66K lifetime profit over 1,095 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $67
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.9K on it
- 1LlamaLoco000045% won of 299 · noise$820+$325K lifetime
- 2Giorgio266% won of 302 · whale$616+$33K lifetime
- 3dlbbbdbdbdblw76% won of 41$290−$594 lifetime
- 40x43fC51C111bd17A8916F79475a07c106be63714d-177344691058681% won of 21$106+$264 lifetime
- 5chrispike297% won of 38 · grinder$21+$123 lifetime
No$67 on it
- 1theta-thunberg56% won of 1,095 · whale$33+$66K lifetime
- 2bogdanooo65% won of 172 · balanced$20+$22 lifetime
- 3LornaPredicts28% won of 15,970 · noise$3+$28K lifetime
- 4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,389 · whale$1+$22K lifetime
- 5sirjhow0162% won of 763$1−$5.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?"?
36 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $820 on it, $325K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is theta-thunberg, with $33 on it, $66K lifetime profit over 1,095 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.