Who's betting on “Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 69% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $161K traded all time
- Held now
- $21K by 148 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 34% 82 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 69% 66 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $161K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
34% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
Who holds it
148 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is machine321, with $211 on it, $19K lifetime loss over 43 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is Moneymovesmaster, with $3.7K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 92 markets (39% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3 on No.
- Holders
- 82
- Money on it
- $608
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$608 on it
- 1machine32133% won of 43$211−$19K lifetime
- 2Dotzy152% won of 205 · balanced$106+$5.4K lifetime
- 3tim-che100% won of 1$39−$947 lifetime
- 4Zmey.37% won of 224$35−$269 lifetime
- 5HighLife888100% won of 9$26+$2.3K lifetime
No$20K on it
- 1Moneymovesmaster39% won of 92$3.7K−$13K lifetime
- 2BlindAndDeaf90% won of 29 · balanced$3.0K+$5.5K lifetime
- 3bearbees283% won of 257 · whale$2.6K+$35K lifetime
- 4bear-bees87% won of 47 · balanced$1.9K+$2.4K lifetime
- 5seasonedsusan53% won of 200$1.8K−$5.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?
148 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is machine321, with $211 on it, $19K lifetime loss over 43 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is Moneymovesmaster, with $3.7K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 92 markets (39% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $161K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
34% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.