Who's betting on “Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $264K traded all time
- Held now
- $20K by 191 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 48% 91 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 45% 100 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $264K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
48% of the money on Yes and 45% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
191 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 191 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $49 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is Alegrandebig, with $8.4K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,242 markets (92% won).
- Holders
- 91
- Money on it
- $315
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 100
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' win rate
- 88%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$315 on it
- 10xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-176753254779448% won of 1,033 · whale$49+$35K lifetime
- 2AMAM1355% won of 6,601$39−$119K lifetime
- 3JShurA87no record yet$36+$0 lifetime
- 4Lan-Uno record yet$19−$514 lifetime
- 50x202B55F1fce57d15463c7691A66a2f03f62C7eD7-176833157708354% won of 13$17−$56K lifetime
No$20K on it
- 1Alegrandebig92% won of 1,242$8.4K−$12K lifetime
- 20x333e…369b97% won of 163 · whale$2.4K+$10K lifetime
- 395074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0492% won of 1,009 · whale$2.4K+$146K lifetime
- 4GTOrski168% won of 31 · balanced$1.7K+$1.0K lifetime
- 5Slowroasted83% won of 216 · whale$821+$35K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?
191 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 191 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $49 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is Alegrandebig, with $8.4K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,242 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $264K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 45% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.