Who's betting on “Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $296K traded all time
- Held now
- $31K by 319 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 71% 151 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 167 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $296K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
71% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
319 wallets hold a position worth $31K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 318 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $529 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is Donny.T, with $8.9K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 855 markets (70% won).
- Holders
- 152
- Money on it
- $1.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 167
- Money on it
- $29K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.7K on it
- 10xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-176753254779448% won of 1,033 · whale$529+$35K lifetime
- 2mageth50% won of 4$368+$941 lifetime
- 3LinaBell69% won of 1,060 · whale$165+$138K lifetime
- 4Listerineman51% won of 200$147−$672 lifetime
- 5HedgedAndLevered295% won of 60$67−$19K lifetime
No$29K on it
- 1Donny.T70% won of 855 · whale$8.9K+$28K lifetime
- 20xF2B05d854E0aF18E70B76e96534E2e7F7A04b26b-175027841330590% won of 225$2.2K−$13K lifetime
- 3DonAntimatter55% won of 200$1.9K−$27K lifetime
- 4DFC88% won of 207 · balanced$1.9K+$1.3K lifetime
- 5GTOrski168% won of 31 · balanced$1.6K+$1.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?"?
319 wallets hold a position worth $31K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 318 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $529 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is Donny.T, with $8.9K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 855 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $296K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.