Who's betting on “Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 38 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $89K traded all time
- Held now
- $19K by 170 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 55% 108 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 61 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $89K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
55% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
Who holds it
170 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 169 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $61 on it, $293K lifetime profit over 1,525 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is DegenerateJanet, with $12K on it, $27K lifetime profit over 672 markets (83% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $17 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $35 on No.
- Holders
- 109
- Money on it
- $604
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 1 · $17
- Holders
- 61
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
- Snipers
- 1 · $35
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$604 on it
- 1paddaa58% won of 1,525 · whale$61+$293K lifetime
- 2PaddyAlpha69% won of 402 · whale$49+$56K lifetime
- 30x1810bB26940A488d9E18d0da69ec282e5218de11-176051697397250% won of 2$39−$101 lifetime
- 4LadyVanga0% won of 2$36−$603 lifetime
- 5AlexCimmeria72% won of 116$31−$35K lifetime
No$19K on it
- 1DegenerateJanet83% won of 672 · whale$12K+$27K lifetime
- 2DFK81% won of 771 · whale$1.5K+$42K lifetime
- 3BlindAndDeaf90% won of 29 · balanced$1.2K+$5.5K lifetime
- 4ImJustKen65% won of 1,080 · whale$883+$2.3M lifetime
- 5Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,136 · whale$718+$560 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?"?
170 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 169 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $61 on it, $293K lifetime profit over 1,525 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is DegenerateJanet, with $12K on it, $27K lifetime profit over 672 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $89K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
55% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.