Who's betting on “Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”?
Politics · $3.5M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 37¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
32% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 50 points.
1,795 wallets hold a position worth $2.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,766 of them. The largest Yes holder is whoareyoun, with $156K on it, $144 lifetime loss over 1 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is wan123, with $174K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $37 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $99K on No; the insider radar has flagged 3 wallets betting $189K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 32%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $880K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 1 · $37
- Insider flags
- 3 · $189K
- Smart money share
- 93%
- Holders
- 795
- Money on it
- $1.2M
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 2 · $99K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| whoareyoun | $156K | -$144 | 0% of 1 |
| botbotwhale | $90K | +$610K | 89% of 228 |
| tmoneeey | $87K | -$13K | 81% of 369 |
| nigiri99 | $44K | -$1.4M | 46% of 13,551 |
| neutralwave23 | $42K | -$2.9M | 72% of 26,957 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| wan123whale | $174K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| defillama7sniper | $99K | +$448K | 88% of 51 |
| foodenjoyerwhale | $73K | +$1.2M | 52% of 147 |
| touristswhale | $50K | +$629K | 70% of 934 |
| pup1noise | $39K | +$325K | 41% of 1,117 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?
1,795 wallets hold a position worth $2.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,766 of them. The largest Yes holder is whoareyoun, with $156K on it, $144 lifetime loss over 1 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is wan123, with $174K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 37¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
32% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 50 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
3 wallets on Yes ($189K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.