Who's betting on “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”?
Politics · $2.5M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 63¢ and No at 38¢, a 63% implied chance of Yes. $2.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
78% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 36 points. A week ago, Yes by 28 points.
1,606 wallets hold a position worth $1.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,576 of them. The largest Yes holder is tourists, with $46K on it, $629K lifetime profit over 934 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is botbot, with $84K on it, $610K lifetime profit over 228 markets (89% won).
5 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $42K on Yes; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $16K on No.
- Smart money share
- 78% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $935K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 5 · $42K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 38%
- Holders
- 606
- Money on it
- $383K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $16K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| touristswhale | $46K | +$629K | 70% of 934 |
| defillama7sniper | $38K | +$448K | 88% of 51 |
| mr.oziwhale | $37K | +$769K | 65% of 1,069 |
| lastminwin | $32K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| WordleAddictwhale | $31K | +$642K | 61% of 1,058 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| botbotwhale | $84K | +$610K | 89% of 228 |
| tmoneeey | $79K | -$13K | 81% of 369 |
| neutralwave23 | $23K | -$2.9M | 72% of 27,006 |
| 0x16bb…8492 | $20K | -$99K | 95% of 903 |
| foobarb | $16K | +$0 | - |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?
1,606 wallets hold a position worth $1.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,576 of them. The largest Yes holder is tourists, with $46K on it, $629K lifetime profit over 934 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is botbot, with $84K on it, $610K lifetime profit over 228 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 63¢ and No at 38¢, a 63% implied chance of Yes. $2.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 36 points. A week ago, Yes by 28 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on No ($16K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.